The Impact of Trade Policies on the Development of Egyptian Agricultural Exports to the Most Important Global Blocks

Document Type : Original Article

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Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Beni-Suef University, Egypt

Abstract

Foreign trade significantly contributes to the economic development of countries by securing essential goods, increasing production and revenues, creating job opportunities, reducing poverty, and enhancing individual welfare. In Egypt, agricultural exports represent a crucial component of the export structure and greatly benefit from trade agreements with global economic blocs. However, Egypt's trade balance suffers from a persistent and growing deficit, necessitating an individual evaluation of the impact of Egypt's membership in each economic bloc. The study's objectives include analyzing the commodity and geographical distribution of Egypt's agricultural exports to major global economic blocs, examining policies and mechanisms supporting the development of these exports, and identifying the obstacles they face. The research methodology relies on the use of the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), which enables the analysis of the reciprocal effects between variables and the study of dynamic interactions among them. The model is characterized by its accuracy and flexibility in measuring the relationship between trade policies and the development of agricultural exports, along with forecasting future impacts of these policies. The theoretical framework of the model focuses on linking current observations to previous ones of the variables under study, with all variables being equally included in the analysis without restrictions. The model allows for precise measurement of the reciprocal effects between independent and dependent variables, providing a comprehensive understanding of the impact of trade policies on the performance of Egypt's agricultural exports.

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