Economic Determinants of Red Meat Production in Egypt Using the NARDL Model

Ibrahim, Gamal Al-dein; A. Mashaal, Ahmed

doi:10.21608/jassd.2024.287326.1021

Economic Determinants of Red Meat Production in Egypt Using the NARDL Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Department of Economic Studies, Desert Research Center, Egypt

² Agricultural Research Center, Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Egypt

10.21608/jassd.2024.287326.1021

Abstract

The research aimed to study the impact of positive and negative shocks on the price of red meat, the price of imported feed, and the exchange rate of the pound on the quantity of red meat production in Egypt using the NARDL model during the period (1990-2022). The research reached several results, the most important of which is the presence of a negative, significant impact of negative shocks to the price of imported feed and the exchange rate of the pound in the short and long run on the quantity of red meat production during the study period. It was more influential in the long run, while it was found that there was a positive, significant impact of positive shocks to the price of red meat in the long run on the amount of red meat production. The results also showed that the positive and negative impact of the independent variables on the dependent variable is higher in a negative shock than a positive shock.
The research recommends that the state should follow a monetary policy that limits exchange rate fluctuations to limit its negative impact on the quantity of red meat production, as increasing the effect of the exchange rate by about 10% leads to a decrease in the quantity of red meat production by about 0.8% and 1.7% in the short run and the long run, respectively.

Keywords